The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Ohio BobcatsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 17.7market OHIO by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.6 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 85% to win, with the market at OHIO by 14.
OHIO has the advantage in passing: OHIO passing ranks #61, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into OHIO's #47.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, BALL defends it at #100; the other way BALL #119 into OHIO's #21.
Rest: BALL has 7 more days since its last game (BALL 14d, OHIO 7d).
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 23.0 points a game (BALL -15.0, OHIO +8.0).
Home field is with BALL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 17.7 against a market OHIO by 14: 3.7 points of daylight in OHIO's favour. The model's total is 55.6 against a line of 52.5: 3.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 17.7 · market OHIO by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, BALL defends it at #94; the other way BALL #130 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, BALL defends it at #100; the other way BALL #119 into OHIO's #21.
Big plays
BALL
Slight advantage
BALL pass explosiveness ranks #64, OHIO defends it at #87; the other way OHIO #118 into BALL's #71.
Pass protection & rush
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO sack rate ranks #105, BALL defends it at #98; the other way BALL #134 into OHIO's #78.
Ball security
=
Even
OHIO turnovers / game ranks #92, BALL defends it at #92; the other way BALL #80 into OHIO's #63.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
BALL −15.0 per game over the last five, OHIO +8.0.
Market
OHIO
Clear advantage
Consensus has OHIO by 14; the model says OHIO by 17.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OHIO by 14 · model OHIO by 17.7
Mkt OHIO 14
Model OHIO 17.7
← OHIO by 28tieBALL by 28 →
2.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 55.6
Mkt 52.5
Model 55.6
24 pts6096 pts
6.9% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 55.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
