The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Delaware Blue HensSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEL by 4.6market DEL by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.8 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Delaware Blue Hens at 61% to win, with the market at DEL by 2.5.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours WKU. WKU points / scoring opportunity ranks #30, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into WKU's #10. The pick still lands on DEL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DEL has 7 more days since its last game (DEL 13d, WKU 6d).
Form: WKU has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (DEL -0.6, WKU +8.0).
Home field is with DEL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DEL by 4.6 against a market DEL by 2.5: 2.1 points of daylight in DEL's favour. The model's total is 58.8 against a line of 62.5: 3.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEL by 4.6 · market DEL by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WKU, but the model still picks DEL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WKU
Slight advantage
WKU passing ranks #74, DEL defends it at #98; the other way DEL #50 into WKU's #37.
Rushing game
WKU
Clear advantage
WKU rushing ranks #78, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into WKU's #50.
Third down & red zone
WKU
Clear advantage
WKU points / scoring opportunity ranks #30, DEL defends it at #108; the other way DEL #89 into WKU's #10.
Big plays
=
Even
WKU pass explosiveness ranks #89, DEL defends it at #61; the other way DEL #112 into WKU's #60.
Pass protection & rush
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL sack rate ranks #58, WKU defends it at #119; the other way WKU #53 into DEL's #47.
Ball security
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL turnovers / game ranks #95, WKU defends it at #96; the other way WKU #111 into DEL's #44.
Form (last 5)
WKU
Clear advantage
DEL −0.6 per game over the last five, WKU +8.0.
Market
DEL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DEL by 2.5; the model says DEL by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket DEL by 2.5 · model DEL by 4.6
Mkt DEL 2.5
Model DEL 4.6
← WKU by 28tieDEL by 28 →
6.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 58.8
Mkt 62.5
Model 58.8
24 pts6096 pts
8.6% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 58.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
