The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%San José State SpartansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 2.4market STAN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.9 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San José State Spartans at 55% to win, with the market at STAN by 3.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with STAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 2.4 against a market STAN by 3: 5.4 points of daylight in SJSU's favour. The model's total is 52.9 against a line of 49.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 2.4 · market STAN by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor STAN, but the model still picks SJSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
SJSU passing ranks #88, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into SJSU's #114.
Rushing game
=
Even
STAN rushing ranks #124, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #81 into STAN's #18.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SJSU third-down conversion ranks #40, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into SJSU's #48.
Big plays
STAN
Slight advantage
STAN pass explosiveness ranks #65, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into STAN's #83.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #1, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into SJSU's #109.
Ball security
STAN
Slight advantage
STAN turnovers / game ranks #90, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into STAN's #94.
Form (last 5)
STAN
Clear advantage
STAN −12.6 per game over the last five, SJSU −19.4.
Market
STAN
Slight advantage
Consensus has STAN by 3; the model says SJSU by 2.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket STAN by 3 · model SJSU by 2.4
Mkt STAN 3
Model SJSU 2.4
← SJSU by 28tieSTAN by 28 →
5.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 52.9
Mkt 49.5
Model 52.9
24 pts6096 pts
7.6% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 52.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
