The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Colorado State RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CSU by 1.3market CSU by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.2 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado State Rams at 53% to win, with the market at CSU by 4.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WSU. WSU sack rate ranks #50, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into WSU's #17. The pick still lands on CSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WSU has the better last five games by 33.4 points a game (CSU -22.4, WSU +11.0).
Home field is with CSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CSU by 1.3 against a market CSU by 4.5: 3.2 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 52.2 against a line of 48.5: 3.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CSU by 1.3 · market CSU by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WSU, but the model still picks CSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU passing ranks #105, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into WSU's #15.
Rushing game
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU rushing ranks #88, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into WSU's #53.
Third down & red zone
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into WSU's #32.
Big plays
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU pass explosiveness ranks #120, CSU defends it at #122; the other way CSU #90 into WSU's #18.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
CSU
Slight advantage
CSU turnovers / game ranks #115, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into CSU's #60.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Clear advantage
CSU −22.4 per game over the last five, WSU +11.0.
Market
CSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has CSU by 4.5; the model says CSU by 1.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CSU by 4.5 · model CSU by 1.3
Mkt CSU 4.5
Model CSU 1.3
← WSU by 28tieCSU by 28 →
8.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 52.2
Mkt 48.5
Model 52.2
24 pts6096 pts
9.8% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 52.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
