The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Toledo RocketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 16.3market TOL by 21.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.5 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 83% to win, with the market at TOL by 21.5.
TOL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TOL points / scoring opportunity ranks #54, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into TOL's #4.
TOL has the advantage in passing: TOL passing ranks #59, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into TOL's #3.
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 15.6 points a game (TOL +20.4, AKR +4.8).
Home field is with TOL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 16.3 against a market TOL by 21.5: 5.2 points of daylight in AKR's favour. The model's total is 49.5 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 16.3 · market TOL by 21.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #59, AKR defends it at #68; the other way AKR #100 into TOL's #3.
Rushing game
TOL
Slight advantage
TOL rushing ranks #63, AKR defends it at #25; the other way AKR #116 into TOL's #19.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL points / scoring opportunity ranks #54, AKR defends it at #70; the other way AKR #111 into TOL's #4.
Big plays
=
Even
TOL rush explosiveness ranks #101, AKR defends it at #57; the other way AKR #125 into TOL's #18.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #9, AKR defends it at #62; the other way AKR #109 into TOL's #1.
Ball security
TOL
Slight advantage
TOL turnovers / game ranks #50, AKR defends it at #26; the other way AKR #86 into TOL's #29.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL +20.4 per game over the last five, AKR +4.8.
Market
TOL
Clear advantage
Consensus has TOL by 21.5; the model says TOL by 16.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TOL by 21.5 · model TOL by 16.3
Mkt TOL 21.5
Model TOL 16.3
← AKR by 28tieTOL by 28 →
7.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 49.5
Mkt 50.5
Model 49.5
24 pts6096 pts
1.6% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 49.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
