The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Iowa State CyclonesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 11.5market ISU by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.4 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 75% to win, with the market at ISU by 4.
ISU has the advantage in rushing: ISU rushing ranks #42, ARIZ defends it at #68; the other way ARIZ #45 into ISU's #15.
ISU has the advantage in big plays: ISU pass explosiveness ranks #54, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into ISU's #73.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ARIZ. ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, ISU defends it at #39; the other way ISU #59 into ARIZ's #1. The pick still lands on ISU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with ISU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 11.5 against a market ISU by 4: 7.5 points of daylight in ISU's favour. The model's total is 47.4 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 11.5 · market ISU by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARIZ, but the model still picks ISU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ARIZ passing ranks #60, ISU defends it at #64; the other way ISU #45 into ARIZ's #16.
Rushing game
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU rushing ranks #42, ARIZ defends it at #68; the other way ARIZ #45 into ISU's #15.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ARIZ third-down conversion ranks #54, ISU defends it at #63; the other way ISU #69 into ARIZ's #25.
Big plays
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU pass explosiveness ranks #54, ARIZ defends it at #100; the other way ARIZ #92 into ISU's #73.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
ARIZ
Clear advantage
ARIZ turnovers / game ranks #26, ISU defends it at #39; the other way ISU #59 into ARIZ's #1.
Form (last 5)
ARIZ
Slight advantage
ISU +3.0 per game over the last five, ARIZ +9.0.
Market
ISU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ISU by 4; the model says ISU by 11.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ISU by 4 · model ISU by 11.5
Mkt ISU 4
Model ISU 11.5
← ARIZ by 28tieISU by 28 →
13.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 47.4
Mkt 48.5
Model 47.4
24 pts6096 pts
3.2% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 47.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
