The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Colorado BuffaloesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
COLO by 12.0market COLO by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.7 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado Buffaloes at 76% to win, with the market at COLO by 12.5.
COLO has the advantage in big plays: COLO pass explosiveness ranks #9, WYO defends it at #91; the other way WYO #131 into COLO's #131.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours WYO. WYO sack rate ranks #26, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into WYO's #124. The pick still lands on COLO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WYO has the better last five games by 17.4 points a game (COLO -24.6, WYO -7.2).
Home field is with COLO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it COLO by 12.0 against a market COLO by 12.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.7 against a line of 45.5: 5.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model COLO by 12.0 · market COLO by 12.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor WYO, but the model still picks COLO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
WYO
Clear advantage
WYO passing ranks #123, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into WYO's #36.
Rushing game
=
Even
COLO rushing ranks #98, WYO defends it at #64; the other way WYO #104 into COLO's #58.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WYO points / scoring opportunity ranks #126, COLO defends it at #102; the other way COLO #94 into WYO's #11.
Big plays
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO pass explosiveness ranks #9, WYO defends it at #91; the other way WYO #131 into COLO's #131.
Pass protection & rush
WYO
Clear advantage
WYO sack rate ranks #26, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into WYO's #124.
Ball security
=
Even
COLO turnovers / game ranks #88, WYO defends it at #73; the other way WYO #101 into COLO's #69.
Form (last 5)
WYO
Clear advantage
COLO −24.6 per game over the last five, WYO −7.2.
Market
COLO
Clear advantage
Consensus has COLO by 12.5; the model says COLO by 12.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket COLO by 12.5 · model COLO by 12.0
Mkt COLO 12.5
Model COLO 12.0
← WYO by 28tieCOLO by 28 →
0.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 39.7
Mkt 45.5
Model 39.7
24 pts6096 pts
13.7% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 39.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
