The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%UL Monroe WarhawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ULM by 1.9market UTEP by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.3 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UL Monroe Warhawks at 54% to win, with the market at UTEP by 5.5.
ULM has the advantage in passing: ULM passing ranks #77, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into ULM's #103.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours UTEP. UTEP third-down conversion ranks #132, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into UTEP's #4. The pick still lands on ULM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: ULM has 7 more days since its last game (UTEP 7d, ULM 14d).
Home field is with UTEP, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ULM by 1.9 against a market UTEP by 5.5: 7.4 points of daylight in ULM's favour. The model's total is 53.3 against a line of 47.5: 5.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ULM by 1.9 · market UTEP by 5.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UTEP, but the model still picks ULM. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ULM
Slight advantage
ULM passing ranks #77, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into ULM's #103.
Rushing game
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP rushing ranks #105, ULM defends it at #67; the other way ULM #103 into UTEP's #21.
Third down & red zone
UTEP
Clear advantage
UTEP third-down conversion ranks #132, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into UTEP's #4.
Big plays
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, ULM defends it at #114; the other way ULM #7 into UTEP's #21.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ULM sack rate ranks #85, UTEP defends it at #67; the other way UTEP #86 into ULM's #44.
Ball security
=
Even
ULM turnovers / game ranks #107, UTEP defends it at #107; the other way UTEP #132 into ULM's #129.
Form (last 5)
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP −12.6 per game over the last five, ULM −17.0.
Market
UTEP
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTEP by 5.5; the model says ULM by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTEP by 5.5 · model ULM by 1.9
Mkt UTEP 5.5
Model ULM 1.9
← ULM by 28tieUTEP by 28 →
12.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 53.3
Mkt 47.5
Model 53.3
24 pts6096 pts
14.3% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 53.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
