The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Louisiana Tech BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 10.4market LT by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.7 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 73% to win, with the market at LT by 3.
LT has the advantage in rushing: LT rushing ranks #50, USM defends it at #94; the other way USM #77 into LT's #41.
LT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LT third-down conversion ranks #55, USM defends it at #126; the other way USM #70 into LT's #64.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours USM. USM sack rate ranks #45, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into USM's #39. The pick still lands on LT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: LT has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (LT +0.2, USM -9.8).
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 10.4 against a market LT by 3: 7.4 points of daylight in LT's favour. The model's total is 46.7 against a line of 51.5: 4.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 10.4 · market LT by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USM
Slight advantage
USM passing ranks #52, LT defends it at #30; the other way LT #91 into USM's #14.
Rushing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, USM defends it at #94; the other way USM #77 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
LT
Clear advantage
LT third-down conversion ranks #55, USM defends it at #126; the other way USM #70 into LT's #64.
Big plays
=
Even
USM pass explosiveness ranks #15, LT defends it at #84; the other way LT #45 into USM's #42.
Pass protection & rush
USM
Clear advantage
USM sack rate ranks #45, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into USM's #39.
Ball security
USM
Slight advantage
USM turnovers / game ranks #55, LT defends it at #9; the other way LT #74 into USM's #3.
Form (last 5)
LT
Clear advantage
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, USM −9.8.
Market
LT
Slight advantage
Consensus has LT by 3; the model says LT by 10.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 3 · model LT by 10.4
Mkt LT 3
Model LT 10.4
← USM by 28tieLT by 28 →
13.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 46.7
Mkt 51.5
Model 46.7
24 pts6096 pts
12.7% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 46.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
