The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Virginia CavaliersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UVA by 7.8market UVA by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.0 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Virginia Cavaliers at 67% to win, with the market at UVA by 16.5.
UVA has the advantage in passing: UVA passing ranks #66, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into UVA's #33.
UVA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UVA third-down conversion ranks #11, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into UVA's #2.
Form: UVA has the better last five games by 18.4 points a game (UVA +5.8, STAN -12.6).
Home field is with UVA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UVA by 7.8 against a market UVA by 16.5: 8.7 points of daylight in STAN's favour. The model's total is 52.0 against a line of 48.5: 3.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UVA by 7.8 · market UVA by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA passing ranks #66, STAN defends it at #116; the other way STAN #94 into UVA's #33.
Rushing game
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA rushing ranks #21, STAN defends it at #18; the other way STAN #124 into UVA's #42.
Third down & red zone
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA third-down conversion ranks #11, STAN defends it at #104; the other way STAN #90 into UVA's #2.
Big plays
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA rush explosiveness ranks #27, STAN defends it at #32; the other way STAN #133 into UVA's #54.
Pass protection & rush
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA sack rate ranks #10, STAN defends it at #105; the other way STAN #127 into UVA's #49.
Ball security
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA turnovers / game ranks #36, STAN defends it at #94; the other way STAN #90 into UVA's #47.
Form (last 5)
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA +5.8 per game over the last five, STAN −12.6.
Market
UVA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UVA by 16.5; the model says UVA by 7.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UVA by 16.5 · model UVA by 7.8
Mkt UVA 16.5
Model UVA 7.8
← STAN by 28tieUVA by 28 →
12.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 52.0
Mkt 48.5
Model 52.0
24 pts6096 pts
9.8% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 52.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
