The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Idaho VandalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IDHO by 0.1market SJSU by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.0 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Idaho Vandals at 50% to win, with the market at SJSU by 14.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: IDHO has 7 more days since its last game (SJSU 14d, IDHO 21d).
Form: IDHO has the better last five games by 16.4 points a game (SJSU -19.4, IDHO -3.0).
Home field is with SJSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IDHO by 0.1 against a market SJSU by 14: 14.1 points of daylight in IDHO's favour. The model's total is 42.0 against a line of 51.5: 9.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IDHO by 0.1 · market SJSU by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
IDHO
Clear advantage
SJSU −19.4 per game over the last five, IDHO −3.0.
Market
SJSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 14; the model says IDHO by 0.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 14 · model IDHO by 0.1
Mkt SJSU 14
Model IDHO 0.1
← IDHO by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
24.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 42.0
Mkt 51.5
Model 42.0
24 pts6096 pts
22.6% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 42.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
