The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
93%Tennessee VolunteersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 24.9market TENN by 39.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
76.0 pointsmarket 69.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 93% to win, with the market at TENN by 39.5.
TENN has the advantage in passing: TENN passing ranks #21, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into TENN's #59.
TENN has the advantage in rushing: TENN rushing ranks #7, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into TENN's #72.
Form: TENN has the better last five games by 20.4 points a game (TENN +4.8, UAB -15.6).
Home field is with TENN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 24.9 against a market TENN by 39.5: 14.6 points of daylight in UAB's favour. The model's total is 76.0 against a line of 69.5: 6.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 24.9 · market TENN by 39.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN passing ranks #21, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #103 into TENN's #59.
Rushing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN rushing ranks #7, UAB defends it at #126; the other way UAB #52 into TENN's #72.
Third down & red zone
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN points / scoring opportunity ranks #9, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #75 into TENN's #109.
Big plays
TENN
Slight advantage
TENN pass explosiveness ranks #56, UAB defends it at #134; the other way UAB #72 into TENN's #53.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #33, UAB defends it at #72; the other way UAB #94 into TENN's #54.
Ball security
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN turnovers / game ranks #56, UAB defends it at #123; the other way UAB #119 into TENN's #37.
Form (last 5)
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN +4.8 per game over the last five, UAB −15.6.
Market
TENN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TENN by 39.5; the model says TENN by 24.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 39.5 · model TENN by 24.9
Mkt TENN 39.5
Model TENN 24.9
← UAB by 28tieTENN by 28 →
14.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 69.5 · model 76.0
Mkt 69.5
Model 76.0
24 pts6096 pts
6.8% of FBS games finish between 69.5 and 76.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
