The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Iowa HawkeyesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IOWA by 1.2market IOWA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.5 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa Hawkeyes at 53% to win, with the market at IOWA by 2.5.
IOWA has the advantage in rushing: IOWA rushing ranks #20, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into IOWA's #46.
IOWA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IOWA points / scoring opportunity ranks #20, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into IOWA's #38.
Form: IOWA has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (RUTG -8.2, IOWA +5.4).
Home field is with RUTG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IOWA by 1.2 against a market IOWA by 2.5: 1.3 points of daylight in RUTG's favour. The model's total is 54.5 against a line of 46.5: 8.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IOWA by 1.2 · market IOWA by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IOWA
Slight advantage
IOWA passing ranks #89, RUTG defends it at #127; the other way RUTG #32 into IOWA's #20.
Rushing game
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA rushing ranks #20, RUTG defends it at #133; the other way RUTG #79 into IOWA's #46.
Third down & red zone
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA points / scoring opportunity ranks #20, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #101 into IOWA's #38.
Big plays
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA rush explosiveness ranks #87, RUTG defends it at #130; the other way RUTG #116 into IOWA's #40.
Pass protection & rush
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA sack rate ranks #71, RUTG defends it at #126; the other way RUTG #123 into IOWA's #61.
Ball security
=
Even
IOWA turnovers / game ranks #28, RUTG defends it at #112; the other way RUTG #17 into IOWA's #95.
Form (last 5)
IOWA
Clear advantage
RUTG −8.2 per game over the last five, IOWA +5.4.
Market
IOWA
Slight advantage
Consensus has IOWA by 2.5; the model says IOWA by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IOWA by 2.5 · model IOWA by 1.2
Mkt IOWA 2.5
Model IOWA 1.2
← IOWA by 28tieRUTG by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 54.5
Mkt 46.5
Model 54.5
24 pts6096 pts
18.5% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 54.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
