The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Florida International PanthersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FIU by 3.3market FIU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.9 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Florida International Panthers at 58% to win, with the market at FIU by 2.5.
FIU has the advantage in rushing: FIU rushing ranks #55, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into FIU's #63.
FIU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: FIU points / scoring opportunity ranks #35, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #92 into FIU's #67.
Form: FIU has the better last five games by 17.2 points a game (FIU +8.4, FAU -8.8).
Home field is with FIU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it FIU by 3.3 against a market FIU by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.9 against a line of 56.5: 5.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FIU by 3.3 · market FIU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
FIU passing ranks #84, FAU defends it at #92; the other way FAU #54 into FIU's #56.
Rushing game
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU rushing ranks #55, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into FIU's #63.
Third down & red zone
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU points / scoring opportunity ranks #35, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #92 into FIU's #67.
Big plays
=
Even
FAU pass explosiveness ranks #49, FIU defends it at #98; the other way FIU #128 into FAU's #79.
Pass protection & rush
FAU
Slight advantage
FAU sack rate ranks #19, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #64 into FAU's #93.
Ball security
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU turnovers / game ranks #109, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #135 into FIU's #30.
Form (last 5)
FIU
Clear advantage
FIU +8.4 per game over the last five, FAU −8.8.
Market
FIU
Slight advantage
Consensus has FIU by 2.5; the model says FIU by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FIU by 2.5 · model FIU by 3.3
Mkt FIU 2.5
Model FIU 3.3
← FAU by 28tieFIU by 28 →
5.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 50.9
Mkt 56.5
Model 50.9
24 pts6096 pts
14.5% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 50.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
