The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Louisiana Tech BulldogsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 5.3market LT by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.1 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 62% to win, with the market at LT by 10.
LT has the advantage in rushing: LT rushing ranks #50, NMSU defends it at #26; the other way NMSU #134 into LT's #41.
LT has the advantage in passing: LT passing ranks #91, NMSU defends it at #85; the other way NMSU #97 into LT's #30.
Form: LT has the better last five games by 12.0 points a game (LT +0.2, NMSU -11.8).
Home field is with LT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 5.3 against a market LT by 10: 4.7 points of daylight in NMSU's favour. The model's total is 35.1 against a line of 42.5: 7.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 5.3 · market LT by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT passing ranks #91, NMSU defends it at #85; the other way NMSU #97 into LT's #30.
Rushing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT rushing ranks #50, NMSU defends it at #26; the other way NMSU #134 into LT's #41.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LT third-down conversion ranks #55, NMSU defends it at #95; the other way NMSU #45 into LT's #64.
Big plays
=
Even
LT pass explosiveness ranks #45, NMSU defends it at #43; the other way NMSU #109 into LT's #84.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NMSU sack rate ranks #96, LT defends it at #118; the other way LT #107 into NMSU's #113.
Ball security
LT
Slight advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #74, NMSU defends it at #11; the other way NMSU #131 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
LT
Clear advantage
LT +0.2 per game over the last five, NMSU −11.8.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 10; the model says LT by 5.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 10 · model LT by 5.3
Mkt LT 10
Model LT 5.3
← NMSU by 28tieLT by 28 →
8.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 35.1
Mkt 42.5
Model 35.1
24 pts6096 pts
13.0% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 35.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
