The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
88%Kentucky WildcatsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UK by 19.9market UK by 26.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.3 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kentucky Wildcats at 88% to win, with the market at UK by 26.5.
UK has the advantage in rushing: UK rushing ranks #89, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into UK's #56.
UK has the advantage in big plays: UK pass explosiveness ranks #59, EMU defends it at #95; the other way EMU #70 into UK's #63.
Home field is with UK, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UK by 19.9 against a market UK by 26.5: 6.6 points of daylight in EMU's favour. The model's total is 50.3 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UK by 19.9 · market UK by 26.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
EMU passing ranks #57, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into EMU's #112.
Rushing game
UK
Slight advantage
UK rushing ranks #89, EMU defends it at #127; the other way EMU #61 into UK's #56.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UK third-down conversion ranks #63, EMU defends it at #129; the other way EMU #53 into UK's #73.
Big plays
UK
Slight advantage
UK pass explosiveness ranks #59, EMU defends it at #95; the other way EMU #70 into UK's #63.
Pass protection & rush
EMU
Slight advantage
EMU sack rate ranks #5, UK defends it at #60; the other way UK #87 into EMU's #115.
Ball security
EMU
Slight advantage
EMU turnovers / game ranks #58, UK defends it at #81; the other way UK #126 into EMU's #124.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
UK +0.2 per game over the last five, EMU −2.0.
Market
UK
Clear advantage
Consensus has UK by 26.5; the model says UK by 19.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UK by 26.5 · model UK by 19.9
Mkt UK 26.5
Model UK 19.9
← EMU by 28tieUK by 28 →
8.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 50.3
Mkt 49.5
Model 50.3
24 pts6096 pts
1.6% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 50.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
