The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Washington State CougarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 0.3market UNT by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.7 pointsmarket 57.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 51% to win, with the market at UNT by 6.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UNT. UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into UNT's #6. The pick still lands on WSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with UNT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 0.3 against a market UNT by 6.5: 6.8 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 59.7 against a line of 57.5: 2.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 0.3 · market UNT by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UNT, but the model still picks WSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, WSU defends it at #15; the other way WSU #105 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT rushing ranks #3, WSU defends it at #53; the other way WSU #88 into UNT's #88.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #48, UNT defends it at #104; the other way UNT #4 into WSU's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
WSU pass explosiveness ranks #120, UNT defends it at #112; the other way UNT #63 into WSU's #18.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, UNT defends it at #96; the other way UNT #25 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT +15.4 per game over the last five, WSU +11.0.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 6.5; the model says WSU by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 6.5 · model WSU by 0.3
Mkt UNT 6.5
Model WSU 0.3
← WSU by 28tieUNT by 28 →
12.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 59.7
Mkt 57.5
Model 59.7
24 pts6096 pts
5.8% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 59.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
