The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Missouri TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 13.6market MIZ by 27.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 79% to win, with the market at MIZ by 27.5.
MIZ has the advantage in rushing: MIZ rushing ranks #18, UL defends it at #103; the other way UL #53 into MIZ's #33.
MIZ has the advantage in passing: MIZ passing ranks #98, UL defends it at #84; the other way UL #109 into MIZ's #19.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UL. UL turnovers / game ranks #91, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into UL's #52. The pick still lands on MIZ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 13.6 against a market MIZ by 27.5: 13.9 points of daylight in UL's favour. The model's total is 51.8 against a line of 47.5: 4.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 13.6 · market MIZ by 27.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ passing ranks #98, UL defends it at #84; the other way UL #109 into MIZ's #19.
Rushing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rushing ranks #18, UL defends it at #103; the other way UL #53 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, UL defends it at #107; the other way UL #59 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
UL
Slight advantage
UL pass explosiveness ranks #42, MIZ defends it at #81; the other way MIZ #114 into UL's #34.
Pass protection & rush
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ sack rate ranks #91, UL defends it at #88; the other way UL #75 into MIZ's #8.
Ball security
UL
Slight advantage
UL turnovers / game ranks #91, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into UL's #52.
Form (last 5)
UL
Slight advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, UL +2.4.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 27.5; the model says MIZ by 13.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 27.5 · model MIZ by 13.6
Mkt MIZ 27.5
Model MIZ 13.6
← UL by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
18.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 51.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 51.8
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 51.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
