The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Miami HurricanesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 15.9market MIA by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.8 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Hurricanes at 82% to win, with the market at MIA by 17.5.
MIA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, USF defends it at #78; the other way USF #21 into MIA's #11.
Counterpoint: big plays favours USF. USF rush explosiveness ranks #69, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into USF's #106. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: USF has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (MIA +9.2, USF +18.8).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 15.9 against a market MIA by 17.5: 1.6 points of daylight in USF's favour. The model's total is 62.8 against a line of 56.5: 6.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 15.9 · market MIA by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
MIA passing ranks #10, USF defends it at #34; the other way USF #9 into MIA's #18.
Rushing game
=
Even
USF rushing ranks #46, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into USF's #32.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, USF defends it at #78; the other way USF #21 into MIA's #11.
Big plays
USF
Slight advantage
USF rush explosiveness ranks #69, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into USF's #106.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #12, USF defends it at #90; the other way USF #43 into MIA's #22.
Ball security
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #25, USF defends it at #10; the other way USF #104 into MIA's #35.
Form (last 5)
USF
Clear advantage
MIA +9.2 per game over the last five, USF +18.8.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 17.5; the model says MIA by 15.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 17.5 · model MIA by 15.9
Mkt MIA 17.5
Model MIA 15.9
← USF by 28tieMIA by 28 →
3.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 62.8
Mkt 56.5
Model 62.8
24 pts6096 pts
13.4% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 62.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
