The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
72%Washington State CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSU by 10.0market WSU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.8 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington State Cougars at 72% to win, with the market at WSU by 2.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SDSU. SDSU turnovers / game ranks #54, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into SDSU's #54. The pick still lands on WSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: SDSU has 2 more days since its last game (WSU 7d, SDSU 9d).
Form: WSU has the better last five games by 12.6 points a game (WSU +11.0, SDSU -1.6).
Home field is with WSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WSU by 10.0 against a market WSU by 2.5: 7.5 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 51.8 against a line of 46.5: 5.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSU by 10.0 · market WSU by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SDSU, but the model still picks WSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
WSU passing ranks #105, SDSU defends it at #2; the other way SDSU #125 into WSU's #15.
Rushing game
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU rushing ranks #35, WSU defends it at #53; the other way WSU #88 into SDSU's #51.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSU third-down conversion ranks #87, SDSU defends it at #14; the other way SDSU #129 into WSU's #32.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #20, WSU defends it at #18; the other way WSU #120 into SDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
WSU
Slight advantage
WSU sack rate ranks #50, SDSU defends it at #25; the other way SDSU #77 into WSU's #17.
Ball security
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU turnovers / game ranks #54, WSU defends it at #114; the other way WSU #113 into SDSU's #54.
Form (last 5)
WSU
Clear advantage
WSU +11.0 per game over the last five, SDSU −1.6.
Market
WSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has WSU by 2.5; the model says WSU by 10.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WSU by 2.5 · model WSU by 10.0
Mkt WSU 2.5
Model WSU 10.0
← SDSU by 28tieWSU by 28 →
16.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 51.8
Mkt 46.5
Model 51.8
24 pts6096 pts
12.7% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 51.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
