The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Colorado State RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CSU by 1.8market CSU by 34.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.0 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado State Rams at 54% to win, with the market at CSU by 34.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: UNCO has the better last five games by 18.4 points a game (CSU -22.4, UNCO -4.0).
Home field is with CSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CSU by 1.8 against a market CSU by 34.5: 32.7 points of daylight in UNCO's favour. The model's total is 57.0 against a line of 52.5: 4.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CSU by 1.8 · market CSU by 34.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UNCO, but the model still picks CSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
UNCO
Clear advantage
CSU −22.4 per game over the last five, UNCO −4.0.
Market
CSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has CSU by 34.5; the model says CSU by 1.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CSU by 34.5 · model CSU by 1.8
Mkt CSU 34.5
Model CSU 1.8
← UNCO by 28tieCSU by 28 →
49.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 57.0
Mkt 52.5
Model 57.0
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 57.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
