The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Ohio BobcatsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OHIO by 2.2market WVU by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.3 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio Bobcats at 55% to win, with the market at WVU by 3.5.
OHIO has the advantage in passing: OHIO passing ranks #61, WVU defends it at #113; the other way WVU #113 into OHIO's #47.
OHIO has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, WVU defends it at #60; the other way WVU #133 into OHIO's #21.
Rest: OHIO has 2 more days since its last game (OHIO 9d, WVU 7d).
Form: OHIO has the better last five games by 16.0 points a game (OHIO +8.0, WVU -8.0).
Home field is with OHIO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OHIO by 2.2 against a market WVU by 3.5: 5.7 points of daylight in OHIO's favour. The model's total is 54.3 against a line of 58.5: 4.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OHIO by 2.2 · market WVU by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO passing ranks #61, WVU defends it at #113; the other way WVU #113 into OHIO's #47.
Rushing game
OHIO
Slight advantage
OHIO rushing ranks #24, WVU defends it at #17; the other way WVU #126 into OHIO's #69.
Third down & red zone
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO third-down conversion ranks #42, WVU defends it at #60; the other way WVU #133 into OHIO's #21.
Big plays
=
Even
WVU pass explosiveness ranks #24, OHIO defends it at #87; the other way OHIO #118 into WVU's #124.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
OHIO sack rate ranks #105, WVU defends it at #75; the other way WVU #117 into OHIO's #78.
Ball security
WVU
Slight advantage
WVU turnovers / game ranks #100, OHIO defends it at #63; the other way OHIO #92 into WVU's #27.
Form (last 5)
OHIO
Clear advantage
OHIO +8.0 per game over the last five, WVU −8.0.
Market
WVU
Clear advantage
Consensus has WVU by 3.5; the model says OHIO by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WVU by 3.5 · model OHIO by 2.2
Mkt WVU 3.5
Model OHIO 2.2
← WVU by 28tieOHIO by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 54.3
Mkt 58.5
Model 54.3
24 pts6096 pts
9.9% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 54.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
