The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
65%Colorado BuffaloesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
COLO by 6.4market COLO by 23.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.2 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado Buffaloes at 65% to win, with the market at COLO by 23.5.
COLO has the advantage in rushing: COLO rushing ranks #98, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into COLO's #58.
COLO has the advantage in big plays: COLO rush explosiveness ranks #28, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into COLO's #94.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DEL. DEL sack rate ranks #58, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into DEL's #47. The pick still lands on COLO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DEL has the better last five games by 24.0 points a game (COLO -24.6, DEL -0.6).
Home field is with COLO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it COLO by 6.4 against a market COLO by 23.5: 17.1 points of daylight in DEL's favour. The model's total is 56.2 against a line of 49.5: 6.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model COLO by 6.4 · market COLO by 23.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DEL, but the model still picks COLO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL passing ranks #50, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into DEL's #98.
Rushing game
COLO
Clear advantage
COLO rushing ranks #98, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #109 into COLO's #58.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
COLO third-down conversion ranks #85, DEL defends it at #77; the other way DEL #48 into COLO's #37.
Big plays
COLO
Clear advantage
COLO rush explosiveness ranks #28, DEL defends it at #135; the other way DEL #76 into COLO's #94.
Pass protection & rush
DEL
Clear advantage
DEL sack rate ranks #58, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into DEL's #47.
Ball security
=
Even
DEL turnovers / game ranks #95, COLO defends it at #69; the other way COLO #88 into DEL's #44.
Form (last 5)
DEL
Clear advantage
COLO −24.6 per game over the last five, DEL −0.6.
Market
COLO
Clear advantage
Consensus has COLO by 23.5; the model says COLO by 6.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket COLO by 23.5 · model COLO by 6.4
Mkt COLO 23.5
Model COLO 6.4
← DEL by 28tieCOLO by 28 →
25.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 56.2
Mkt 49.5
Model 56.2
24 pts6096 pts
16.1% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 56.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
