The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Missouri TigersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 9.0market MIZ by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.3 pointsno line posted
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 70% to win, with the market at MIZ by 7.
MIZ has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, KU defends it at #88; the other way KU #79 into MIZ's #38.
MIZ has the advantage in big plays: MIZ rush explosiveness ranks #23, KU defends it at #124; the other way KU #108 into MIZ's #51.
Form: MIZ has the better last five games by 8.8 points a game (MIZ -0.4, KU -9.2).
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 9.0 against a market MIZ by 7: 2.0 points of daylight in MIZ's favour. The model's total is 53.3; no line is posted yet to compare.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 9.0 · market MIZ by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIZ
Slight advantage
MIZ passing ranks #98, KU defends it at #122; the other way KU #44 into MIZ's #19.
Rushing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rushing ranks #18, KU defends it at #97; the other way KU #16 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, KU defends it at #88; the other way KU #79 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rush explosiveness ranks #23, KU defends it at #124; the other way KU #108 into MIZ's #51.
Pass protection & rush
MIZ
Slight advantage
MIZ sack rate ranks #91, KU defends it at #83; the other way KU #48 into MIZ's #8.
Ball security
=
Even
KU turnovers / game ranks #45, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into KU's #116.
Form (last 5)
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, KU −9.2.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 7; the model says MIZ by 9.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 7 · model MIZ by 9.0
Mkt MIZ 7
Model MIZ 9.0
← KU by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
