The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Liberty FlamesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LIB by 0.1market LIB by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Liberty Flames at 50% to win, with the market at LIB by 6.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours JVST. JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, LIB defends it at #82; the other way LIB #120 into JVST's #25. The pick still lands on LIB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: JVST has 2 more days since its last game (JVST 9d, LIB 7d).
Home field is with JVST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LIB by 0.1 against a market LIB by 6.5: 6.4 points of daylight in JVST's favour. The model's total is 51.3 against a line of 50.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LIB by 0.1 · market LIB by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor JVST, but the model still picks LIB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST passing ranks #85, LIB defends it at #69; the other way LIB #102 into JVST's #61.
Rushing game
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST rushing ranks #32, LIB defends it at #108; the other way LIB #40 into JVST's #78.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
JVST third-down conversion ranks #82, LIB defends it at #117; the other way LIB #65 into JVST's #46.
Big plays
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST rush explosiveness ranks #13, LIB defends it at #96; the other way LIB #72 into JVST's #108.
Pass protection & rush
JVST
Slight advantage
JVST sack rate ranks #89, LIB defends it at #107; the other way LIB #100 into JVST's #91.
Ball security
JVST
Clear advantage
JVST turnovers / game ranks #23, LIB defends it at #82; the other way LIB #120 into JVST's #25.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
JVST +1.2 per game over the last five, LIB +1.2.
Market
LIB
Clear advantage
Consensus has LIB by 6.5; the model says LIB by 0.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LIB by 6.5 · model LIB by 0.1
Mkt LIB 6.5
Model LIB 0.1
← LIB by 28tieJVST by 28 →
10.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 51.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 51.3
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 51.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
