The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Pittsburgh PanthersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PITT by 17.9market PITT by 21.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.2 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Panthers at 85% to win, with the market at PITT by 21.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CMU. CMU turnovers / game ranks #64, PITT defends it at #34; the other way PITT #124 into CMU's #31. The pick still lands on PITT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with PITT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PITT by 17.9 against a market PITT by 21.5: 3.6 points of daylight in CMU's favour. The model's total is 53.2 against a line of 48.5: 4.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PITT by 17.9 · market PITT by 21.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CMU, but the model still picks PITT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
PITT passing ranks #46, CMU defends it at #39; the other way CMU #25 into PITT's #17.
Rushing game
=
Even
CMU rushing ranks #82, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into CMU's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
PITT third-down conversion ranks #120, CMU defends it at #87; the other way CMU #115 into PITT's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
CMU pass explosiveness ranks #40, PITT defends it at #109; the other way PITT #29 into CMU's #62.
Pass protection & rush
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT sack rate ranks #116, CMU defends it at #85; the other way CMU #120 into PITT's #53.
Ball security
CMU
Clear advantage
CMU turnovers / game ranks #64, PITT defends it at #34; the other way PITT #124 into CMU's #31.
Form (last 5)
CMU
Slight advantage
PITT −6.0 per game over the last five, CMU −3.4.
Market
PITT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PITT by 21.5; the model says PITT by 17.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PITT by 21.5 · model PITT by 17.9
Mkt PITT 21.5
Model PITT 17.9
← CMU by 28tiePITT by 28 →
5.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 53.2
Mkt 48.5
Model 53.2
24 pts6096 pts
11.1% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 53.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
