The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
97%Texas Tech Red RaidersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TTU by 31.4market TTU by 47.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.4 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Tech Red Raiders at 97% to win, with the market at TTU by 47.5.
TTU has the advantage in rushing: TTU rushing ranks #41, KENT defends it at #110; the other way KENT #133 into TTU's #1.
TTU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, KENT defends it at #120; the other way KENT #134 into TTU's #7.
Form: TTU has the better last five games by 23.2 points a game (TTU +22.8, KENT -0.4).
Home field is with TTU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TTU by 31.4 against a market TTU by 47.5: 16.1 points of daylight in KENT's favour. The model's total is 62.4 against a line of 59.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TTU by 31.4 · market TTU by 47.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU passing ranks #39, KENT defends it at #83; the other way KENT #55 into TTU's #1.
Rushing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rushing ranks #41, KENT defends it at #110; the other way KENT #133 into TTU's #1.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, KENT defends it at #120; the other way KENT #134 into TTU's #7.
Big plays
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, KENT defends it at #104; the other way KENT #115 into TTU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU sack rate ranks #39, KENT defends it at #94; the other way KENT #101 into TTU's #56.
Ball security
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU turnovers / game ranks #72, KENT defends it at #117; the other way KENT #46 into TTU's #2.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU +22.8 per game over the last five, KENT −0.4.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 47.5; the model says TTU by 31.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 47.5 · model TTU by 31.4
Mkt TTU 47.5
Model TTU 31.4
← KENT by 28tieTTU by 28 →
11.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 62.4
Mkt 59.5
Model 62.4
24 pts6096 pts
5.5% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 62.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
