The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Arizona State Sun DevilsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ASU by 13.0market ASU by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.3 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Arizona State Sun Devils at 77% to win, with the market at ASU by 5.5.
ASU has the advantage in passing: ASU passing ranks #69, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into ASU's #41.
ASU has the advantage in rushing: ASU rushing ranks #91, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into ASU's #44.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MSST. MSST turnovers / game ranks #53, ASU defends it at #85; the other way ASU #108 into MSST's #53. The pick still lands on ASU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ASU has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (MSST -14.4, ASU +2.6).
Home field is with MSST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ASU by 13.0 against a market ASU by 5.5: 7.5 points of daylight in ASU's favour. The model's total is 60.3 against a line of 58.5: 1.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ASU by 13.0 · market ASU by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ASU
Slight advantage
ASU passing ranks #69, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into ASU's #41.
Rushing game
ASU
Slight advantage
ASU rushing ranks #91, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into ASU's #44.
Third down & red zone
MSST
Slight advantage
MSST points / scoring opportunity ranks #22, ASU defends it at #51; the other way ASU #102 into MSST's #69.
Big plays
=
Even
ASU pass explosiveness ranks #46, MSST defends it at #123; the other way MSST #18 into ASU's #40.
Pass protection & rush
ASU
Clear advantage
ASU sack rate ranks #84, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #128 into ASU's #34.
Ball security
MSST
Clear advantage
MSST turnovers / game ranks #53, ASU defends it at #85; the other way ASU #108 into MSST's #53.
Form (last 5)
ASU
Clear advantage
MSST −14.4 per game over the last five, ASU +2.6.
Market
ASU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ASU by 5.5; the model says ASU by 13.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ASU by 5.5 · model ASU by 13.0
Mkt ASU 5.5
Model ASU 13.0
← ASU by 28tieMSST by 28 →
9.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 60.3
Mkt 58.5
Model 60.3
24 pts6096 pts
4.0% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 60.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
