The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
96%Penn State Nittany LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 29.9market PSU by 41.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.2 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 96% to win, with the market at PSU by 41.5.
PSU has the advantage in passing: PSU passing ranks #58, FIU defends it at #56; the other way FIU #84 into PSU's #32.
PSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PSU third-down conversion ranks #33, FIU defends it at #69; the other way FIU #104 into PSU's #93.
Home field is with PSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 29.9 against a market PSU by 41.5: 11.6 points of daylight in FIU's favour. The model's total is 51.2 against a line of 53.5: 2.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 29.9 · market PSU by 41.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU passing ranks #58, FIU defends it at #56; the other way FIU #84 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
=
Even
PSU rushing ranks #28, FIU defends it at #63; the other way FIU #55 into PSU's #71.
Third down & red zone
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU third-down conversion ranks #33, FIU defends it at #69; the other way FIU #104 into PSU's #93.
Big plays
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU pass explosiveness ranks #110, FIU defends it at #98; the other way FIU #128 into PSU's #26.
Pass protection & rush
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU sack rate ranks #69, FIU defends it at #76; the other way FIU #64 into PSU's #24.
Ball security
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, FIU defends it at #30; the other way FIU #109 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU +11.6 per game over the last five, FIU +8.4.
Market
PSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has PSU by 41.5; the model says PSU by 29.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 41.5 · model PSU by 29.9
Mkt PSU 41.5
Model PSU 29.9
← FIU by 28tiePSU by 28 →
9.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 51.2
Mkt 53.5
Model 51.2
24 pts6096 pts
3.8% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 51.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
