The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 34.5market OSU by 51.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 64.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 98% to win, with the market at OSU by 51.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 85.2 points a game (OSU +15.2, GRAM -70.0).
Home field is with OSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 34.5 against a market OSU by 51.5: 17.0 points of daylight in GRAM's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 64.5: 15.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 34.5 · market OSU by 51.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
–
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU +15.2 per game over the last five, GRAM −70.0.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 51.5; the model says OSU by 34.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 51.5 · model OSU by 34.5
Mkt OSU 51.5
Model OSU 34.5
← GRAM by 28tieOSU by 28 →
9.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 64.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 64.5
Model 49.1
24 pts6096 pts
32.5% of FBS games finish between 64.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
