The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Maryland TerrapinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MD by 2.2market MD by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.6 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Maryland Terrapins at 55% to win, with the market at MD by 16.5.
MD has the advantage in passing: MD passing ranks #72, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into MD's #25.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NIU. NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, MD defends it at #74; the other way MD #99 into NIU's #54. The pick still lands on MD because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NIU has the better last five games by 22.0 points a game (MD -22.6, NIU -0.6).
Home field is with MD, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MD by 2.2 against a market MD by 16.5: 14.3 points of daylight in NIU's favour. The model's total is 44.6 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MD by 2.2 · market MD by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MD
Clear advantage
MD passing ranks #72, NIU defends it at #62; the other way NIU #135 into MD's #25.
Rushing game
=
Even
MD rushing ranks #93, NIU defends it at #109; the other way NIU #73 into MD's #89.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MD third-down conversion ranks #99, NIU defends it at #110; the other way NIU #128 into MD's #102.
Big plays
NIU
Slight advantage
NIU pass explosiveness ranks #32, MD defends it at #74; the other way MD #99 into NIU's #54.
Pass protection & rush
MD
Clear advantage
MD sack rate ranks #2, NIU defends it at #122; the other way NIU #93 into MD's #66.
Ball security
MD
Slight advantage
MD turnovers / game ranks #60, NIU defends it at #93; the other way NIU #16 into MD's #20.
Form (last 5)
NIU
Clear advantage
MD −22.6 per game over the last five, NIU −0.6.
Market
MD
Clear advantage
Consensus has MD by 16.5; the model says MD by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MD by 16.5 · model MD by 2.2
Mkt MD 16.5
Model MD 2.2
← NIU by 28tieMD by 28 →
25.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 44.6
Mkt 44.5
Model 44.6
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
