The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Notre Dame Fighting IrishLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 1.1market ND by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
67.2 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 53% to win, with the market at ND by 2.5.
ND has the advantage in big plays: ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into ND's #23.
ND has the advantage in rushing: ND rushing ranks #11, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into ND's #36.
Form: ND has the better last five games by 24.4 points a game (MIA +9.2, ND +33.6).
Home field is with MIA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 1.1 against a market ND by 2.5: 1.4 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 67.2 against a line of 53.5: 13.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 1.1 · market ND by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
ND passing ranks #11, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #10 into ND's #6.
Rushing game
ND
Slight advantage
ND rushing ranks #11, MIA defends it at #16; the other way MIA #65 into ND's #36.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIA third-down conversion ranks #19, ND defends it at #39; the other way ND #13 into MIA's #11.
Big plays
ND
Clear advantage
ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, MIA defends it at #98; the other way MIA #126 into ND's #23.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ND sack rate ranks #14, MIA defends it at #22; the other way MIA #12 into ND's #16.
Ball security
ND
Slight advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #9, MIA defends it at #35; the other way MIA #25 into ND's #12.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
MIA +9.2 per game over the last five, ND +33.6.
Market
ND
Slight advantage
Consensus has ND by 2.5; the model says ND by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 2.5 · model ND by 1.1
Mkt ND 2.5
Model ND 1.1
← ND by 28tieMIA by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 67.2
Mkt 53.5
Model 67.2
24 pts6096 pts
28.9% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 67.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
