The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Washington HuskiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WASH by 10.6market WASH by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.2 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Huskies at 73% to win, with the market at WASH by 20.5.
WASH has the advantage in passing: WASH passing ranks #37, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into WASH's #50.
WASH has the advantage in rushing: WASH rushing ranks #9, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into WASH's #9.
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 39.0 points a game (WASH +16.6, CSU -22.4).
Home field is with WASH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it WASH by 10.6 against a market WASH by 20.5: 9.9 points of daylight in CSU's favour. The model's total is 53.2 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WASH by 10.6 · market WASH by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH passing ranks #37, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into WASH's #50.
Rushing game
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rushing ranks #9, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into WASH's #9.
Third down & red zone
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH third-down conversion ranks #9, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into WASH's #56.
Big plays
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH rush explosiveness ranks #35, CSU defends it at #39; the other way CSU #117 into WASH's #7.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WASH sack rate ranks #114, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into WASH's #97.
Ball security
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH turnovers / game ranks #44, CSU defends it at #60; the other way CSU #115 into WASH's #45.
Form (last 5)
WASH
Clear advantage
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, CSU −22.4.
Market
WASH
Clear advantage
Consensus has WASH by 20.5; the model says WASH by 10.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WASH by 20.5 · model WASH by 10.6
Mkt WASH 20.5
Model WASH 10.6
← CSU by 28tieWASH by 28 →
12.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 53.2
Mkt 52.5
Model 53.2
24 pts6096 pts
1.3% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 53.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
