The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Utah UtesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTAH by 0.4market UTAH by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Utah Utes at 51% to win, with the market at UTAH by 6.5.
UTAH has the advantage in passing: UTAH passing ranks #31, UCLA defends it at #111; the other way UCLA #118 into UTAH's #4.
UTAH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UTAH third-down conversion ranks #2, UCLA defends it at #135; the other way UCLA #92 into UTAH's #31.
Counterpoint: big plays favours UCLA. UCLA rush explosiveness ranks #30, UTAH defends it at #126; the other way UTAH #21 into UCLA's #30. The pick still lands on UTAH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UTAH has the better last five games by 48.4 points a game (UCLA -29.6, UTAH +18.8).
Home field is with UCLA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UTAH by 0.4 against a market UTAH by 6.5: 6.1 points of daylight in UCLA's favour. The model's total is 40.3 against a line of 50.5: 10.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTAH by 0.4 · market UTAH by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UTAH
Clear advantage
UTAH passing ranks #31, UCLA defends it at #111; the other way UCLA #118 into UTAH's #4.
Rushing game
UTAH
Slight advantage
UTAH rushing ranks #1, UCLA defends it at #128; the other way UCLA #30 into UTAH's #117.
Third down & red zone
UTAH
Clear advantage
UTAH third-down conversion ranks #2, UCLA defends it at #135; the other way UCLA #92 into UTAH's #31.
Big plays
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA rush explosiveness ranks #30, UTAH defends it at #126; the other way UTAH #21 into UCLA's #30.
Pass protection & rush
UTAH
Clear advantage
UTAH sack rate ranks #24, UCLA defends it at #131; the other way UCLA #97 into UTAH's #19.
Ball security
UTAH
Clear advantage
UTAH turnovers / game ranks #19, UCLA defends it at #119; the other way UCLA #47 into UTAH's #56.
Form (last 5)
UTAH
Clear advantage
UCLA −29.6 per game over the last five, UTAH +18.8.
Market
UTAH
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTAH by 6.5; the model says UTAH by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTAH by 6.5 · model UTAH by 0.4
Mkt UTAH 6.5
Model UTAH 0.4
← UTAH by 28tieUCLA by 28 →
10.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 40.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 40.3
24 pts6096 pts
21.9% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 40.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
