The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%North Texas Mean GreenLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 1.4market UNT by 27.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.5 pointsmarket 62.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 53% to win, with the market at UNT by 27.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 66.4 points a game (UNT +15.4, LAM -51.0).
Home field is with UNT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 1.4 against a market UNT by 27.5: 26.1 points of daylight in LAM's favour. The model's total is 57.5 against a line of 62.5: 5.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 1.4 · market UNT by 27.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT +15.4 per game over the last five, LAM −51.0.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 27.5; the model says UNT by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 27.5 · model UNT by 1.4
Mkt UNT 27.5
Model UNT 1.4
← LAM by 28tieUNT by 28 →
41.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 62.5 · model 57.5
Mkt 62.5
Model 57.5
24 pts6096 pts
11.3% of FBS games finish between 62.5 and 57.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
