The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Utah State AggiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USU by 12.0market USU by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
70.1 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Utah State Aggies at 76% to win, with the market at USU by 3.5.
USU has the advantage in passing: USU passing ranks #51, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into USU's #60.
Counterpoint: big plays favours UTEP. UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, USU defends it at #24; the other way USU #67 into UTEP's #21. The pick still lands on USU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: USU has the better last five games by 18.8 points a game (USU +6.2, UTEP -12.6).
Home field is with USU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it USU by 12.0 against a market USU by 3.5: 8.5 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 70.1 against a line of 59.5: 10.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USU by 12.0 · market USU by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USU
Clear advantage
USU passing ranks #51, UTEP defends it at #76; the other way UTEP #132 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP rushing ranks #105, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into UTEP's #21.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
USU points / scoring opportunity ranks #16, UTEP defends it at #85; the other way UTEP #96 into USU's #77.
Big plays
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #17, USU defends it at #24; the other way USU #67 into UTEP's #21.
Pass protection & rush
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP sack rate ranks #86, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into UTEP's #67.
Ball security
USU
Clear advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, UTEP defends it at #107; the other way UTEP #132 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
USU
Clear advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, UTEP −12.6.
Market
USU
Clear advantage
Consensus has USU by 3.5; the model says USU by 12.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USU by 3.5 · model USU by 12.0
Mkt USU 3.5
Model USU 12.0
← UTEP by 28tieUSU by 28 →
15.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 70.1
Mkt 59.5
Model 70.1
24 pts6096 pts
19.0% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 70.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
