The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Air Force FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
AFA by 0.3market AFA by 30.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.1 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Air Force Falcons at 51% to win, with the market at AFA by 30.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: AFA has the better last five games by 36.2 points a game (AFA +0.2, BUCK -36.0).
Home field is with AFA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it AFA by 0.3 against a market AFA by 30.5: 30.2 points of daylight in BUCK's favour. The model's total is 51.1 against a line of 53.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model AFA by 0.3 · market AFA by 30.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA +0.2 per game over the last five, BUCK −36.0.
Market
AFA
Clear advantage
Consensus has AFA by 30.5; the model says AFA by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket AFA by 30.5 · model AFA by 0.3
Mkt AFA 30.5
Model AFA 0.3
← BUCK by 28tieAFA by 28 →
46.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 51.1
Mkt 53.5
Model 51.1
24 pts6096 pts
3.8% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 51.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
