The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Iowa State CyclonesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 15.7market ISU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 82% to win, with the market at ISU by 13.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: ISU has the better last five games by 51.0 points a game (ISU +3.0, SDAK -48.0).
Home field is with ISU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 15.7 against a market ISU by 13.5: 2.2 points of daylight in ISU's favour. The model's total is 55.2 against a line of 47.5: 7.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 15.7 · market ISU by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU +3.0 per game over the last five, SDAK −48.0.
Market
ISU
Clear advantage
Consensus has ISU by 13.5; the model says ISU by 15.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ISU by 13.5 · model ISU by 15.7
Mkt ISU 13.5
Model ISU 15.7
← SDAK by 28tieISU by 28 →
3.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 55.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 55.2
24 pts6096 pts
19.9% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 55.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
