The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Colorado BuffaloesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
COLO by 7.7market GT by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.3 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado Buffaloes at 67% to win, with the market at GT by 4.
COLO has the advantage in big plays: COLO rush explosiveness ranks #28, GT defends it at #79; the other way GT #97 into COLO's #94.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours GT. GT sack rate ranks #7, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into GT's #65. The pick still lands on COLO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: GT has the better last five games by 17.6 points a game (COLO -24.6, GT -7.0).
Home field is with COLO, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it COLO by 7.7 against a market GT by 4: 11.7 points of daylight in COLO's favour. The model's total is 58.3 against a line of 55.5: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model COLO by 7.7 · market GT by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor GT, but the model still picks COLO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
GT
Clear advantage
GT passing ranks #12, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into GT's #104.
Rushing game
GT
Slight advantage
GT rushing ranks #47, COLO defends it at #58; the other way COLO #98 into GT's #73.
Third down & red zone
GT
Slight advantage
GT points / scoring opportunity ranks #77, COLO defends it at #102; the other way COLO #94 into GT's #58.
Big plays
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO rush explosiveness ranks #28, GT defends it at #79; the other way GT #97 into COLO's #94.
Pass protection & rush
GT
Clear advantage
GT sack rate ranks #7, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into GT's #65.
Ball security
COLO
Slight advantage
COLO turnovers / game ranks #88, GT defends it at #130; the other way GT #52 into COLO's #69.
Form (last 5)
GT
Clear advantage
COLO −24.6 per game over the last five, GT −7.0.
Market
GT
Clear advantage
Consensus has GT by 4; the model says COLO by 7.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket GT by 4 · model COLO by 7.7
Mkt GT 4
Model COLO 7.7
← GT by 28tieCOLO by 28 →
23.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 58.3
Mkt 55.5
Model 58.3
24 pts6096 pts
6.3% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 58.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
