The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Stephen F. Austin LumberjacksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SFA by 0.2market HOU by 23.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.4 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at 51% to win, with the market at HOU by 23.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 27.0 points a game (HOU +0.0, SFA -27.0).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SFA by 0.2 against a market HOU by 23.5: 23.7 points of daylight in SFA's favour. The model's total is 44.4 against a line of 54.5: 10.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SFA by 0.2 · market HOU by 23.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks SFA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Rushing game
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Big plays
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Ball security
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not priced
No tendency data yet.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, SFA −27.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 23.5; the model says SFA by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 23.5 · model SFA by 0.2
Mkt HOU 23.5
Model SFA 0.2
← SFA by 28tieHOU by 28 →
38.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 44.4
Mkt 54.5
Model 44.4
24 pts6096 pts
23.0% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 44.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
