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The Thunder (64-18 in 2025–26) host the Bucks (32-50 in 2025–26) on Dec 29, 2026, 8:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
MIL offense ranks better in 0 of 4 matchups · OKC defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
OKC offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIL defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MILOKC
Expected pace: about 101 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
MILOKCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dieng | 31.5 | 13.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Ryan Rollins | 30.4 | 21.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| AJ Green | 29.5 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Pete Nance | 27.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| Taurean Prince | 27.0 | 12.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Jericho Sims | 26.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 |
| Bobby Portis | 25.7 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| Cormac Ryan | 24.5 | 14.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.7 | 28.5 | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| Chet Holmgren | 27.2 | 16.6 | 8.3 | 1.4 |
| Jalen Williams | 25.9 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 23.6 | 10.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Cason Wallace | 22.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Nikola Topic | 21.6 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 6.8 |
| Luguentz Dort | 21.0 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 20.3 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 3.6 |
MIL offenseper gameOKC defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
MIL offense vs OKC defenseOKC offense vs MIL defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
MILForAgainst49% of MIL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
OKCForAgainst50% of OKC's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIL 3series6 OKC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | MIL 110 | OKC 93 | MIL+17 | +17 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OKC 122 | MIL 102 | OKC+20 | +20 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | OKC 116 | MIL 112 | OKC+4 | +4 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | OKC 121 | MIL 105 | OKC+16 | +16 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | MIL 96 | OKC 125 | OKC+29 | +29 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | MIL 97 | OKC 81 | MIL+16 | +16 |
| Apr 12, 2024 | MIL 107 | OKC 125 | OKC+18 | +18 |
| Mar 24, 2024 | OKC 93 | MIL 118 | MIL+25 | +25 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2023 | MIL 101 | OKC 124 | OKC+23 | +23 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIL32-50 · last 82 games | OKC64-18 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 116.5#4 of 30 | 105.1#30 of 30 | 112.7 |
| Points for | 110.6#29 of 30 | 119.0#5 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Scoring margin | −6.2#25 of 30 | +11.1#1 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | −6.2#25 of 30 | +10.9#1 of 30 | 0.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.