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The Magic (45-37 in 2025–26) host the Heat (43-39 in 2025–26) in the preseason on Oct 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
MIA offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ORL defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
ORL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
MIAORL
Expected pace: about 105 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
MIAORLNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Paolo Banchero's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 35.1 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 4.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 32.2 | 18.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Pelle Larsson | 30.6 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Davion Mitchell | 29.7 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Norman Powell | 27.6 | 17.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27.2 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Kel'el Ware | 20.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 1.5 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | 33.9 | 22.2 | 7.6 | 5.9 |
| Desmond Bane | 30.7 | 17.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| Jalen Suggs | 30.4 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 27.9 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 1.4 |
| Tristan da Silva | 26.3 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Franz Wagner | 21.3 | 17.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Jamal Cain | 20.0 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Jevon Carter | 19.9 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
MIA offenseper gameORL defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
MIA offense vs ORL defenseORL offense vs MIA defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
MIAForAgainst50% of MIA's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
ORLForAgainst54% of ORL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
MIA 2series8 ORL| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | ORL 121 | MIA 117 | ORL+4 | +4 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ORL 133 | MIA 124 | ORL+9 | +9 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | MIA 108 | ORL 117 | ORL+9 | +9 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | MIA 105 | ORL 106 | ORL+1 | +1 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | MIA 121 | ORL 125 | ORL+4 | +4 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | MIA 104 | ORL 120 | ORL+16 | +16 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | ORL 126 | MIA 118 | ORL+8 | +8 |
| Jan 27, 2025 | ORL 119 | MIA 125 | MIA+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2024 | MIA 89 | ORL 88 | MIA+1 | +1 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MIA 114 | ORL 121 | ORL+7 | +7 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | MIA43-39 · last 82 games | ORL45-37 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter points for | 31.7#2 of 30 | 28.9#20 of 30 | 29.4 |
| 4th quarter points against | 28.8#6 of 30 | 26.8#20 of 30 | 27.7 |
| Possessions per game | 106.2#1 of 30 | 103.4#12 of 30 | 102.5 |
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.8#12 of 30 | 112.0#19 of 30 | 112.8 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.