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The Heat (43-39 in 2025–26) host the Pelicans (26-56 in 2025–26) in the preseason on Oct 8, 2026, 7:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
NOP offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
MIA offense ranks better in 3 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · NOP defense in 1
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
NOPMIA
Expected pace: about 105 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
NOPMIANo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Bam Adebayo's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 36.3 | 17.4 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| Saddiq Bey | 32.9 | 19.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Zion Williamson | 30.3 | 19.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| Dejounte Murray | 29.1 | 15.9 | 5.4 | 7.3 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 27.9 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Josh Oduro | 27.0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 1.3 |
| Herbert Jones | 26.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Derik Queen | 24.0 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 35.1 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 4.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 32.2 | 18.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Pelle Larsson | 30.6 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Davion Mitchell | 29.7 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Norman Powell | 27.6 | 17.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27.2 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Kel'el Ware | 20.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 1.5 |
NOP offenseper gameMIA defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
NOP offense vs MIA defenseMIA offense vs NOP defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
NOPForAgainst49% of NOP's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
MIAForAgainst50% of MIA's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
NOP 1series6 MIA| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 123 | NOP 111 | MIA+12 | +12 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NOP 106 | MIA 125 | MIA+19 | +19 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2025 | MIA 153 | NOP 104 | MIA+49 | +49 |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NOP 108 | MIA 119 | MIA+11 | +11 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | NOP 99 | MIA 101 | MIA+2 | +2 |
| Mar 22, 2024 | NOP 111 | MIA 88 | NOP+23 | +23 |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MIA 106 | NOP 95 | MIA+11 | +11 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | NOP26-56 · last 82 games | MIA43-39 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points for (home at home, visitor on the road) | 112.9#21 of 30 | 123.5#1 of 30 | 115.6 |
| Scoring margin (home at home, visitor on the road) | −7.6#23 of 30 | +5.2#8 of 30 | 0.0 |
| Possessions per game | 103.8#10 of 30 | 106.2#1 of 30 | 102.5 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 115.6#8 of 30 | 111.6#17 of 30 | 112.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.