Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Center At The StarStadium scoring factor 90 (115th of 134, 100 = league average) · 48.6 points a game in 20 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
UNLV offensevsOHIO defense
UNLV offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · OHIO defense in 2
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.32
#29slight
+0.10
#47
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.21
#13Stronger
+0.06
#69
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#28
33%
slight#21
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.45
#18
2.83
slight#13
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.0%
#81slight
14.9%
#87
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.21
#61slight
1.31
#63
OHIO offensevsUNLV defense
OHIO offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · UNLV defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.19
#61slight
+0.20
#82
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 97 places
+0.18
#24Stronger
+0.17
#121
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#42
33%
slight#17
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.55
#84
3.78
slight#79
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 68 places
12.3%
#17Stronger
14.9%
#85
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 70 places
1.46
#92
1.71
Stronger#22
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
UNLV offenseOHIO defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.32#29
+0.10#47▼
Pass success ratefavors UNLV
46%#26
40%#57
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors UNLV
1.58#50
1.58#87
Yards / pass attemptfavors UNLV
8.3#22
7.5#93
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors UNLV
12.6%#18
10.4%#82
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Points in the 1st half:UNLV scores 53% · allows 50%OHIO scores 50% · allows 42%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UNLVOHIOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
UNLV9 games
Scored12.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share33%
30–37% · 266 plays
OHIO11 games
Scored12.2
Allowed10.4
Pass share28%
23–33% · 340 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
UNLV1 game · small sample
Scored19.0
Allowed13.0
Pass share55%
38 plays · too few games for a range
OHIO3 games
Scored14.7
Allowed20.7
Pass share43%
33–53% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
UNLV7 games
Scored15.7
Allowed17.6
Pass share51%
45–57% · 218 plays
OHIO3 games
Scored18.7
Allowed16.0
Pass share46%
23–69% · 94 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
UNLVat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.6
6.4Q1
11.9
6.9Q2
16.5scored13.4allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.0
7.4Q3
8.1
6.1Q4
OHIOat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
5.6
5.1Q1
7.9
4.4Q2
13.5scored9.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.9
5.3Q3
7.6
7.7Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
UNLVOHIO
10-4
Record
9-4
34.1
Points for / game
27.8
28.0
Points against / game
21.9
5-1 / 5-3
Home / road
7-0 / 2-4
L L W W W
Last 5
W W W L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13–14 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
UNLVOHIO
+4.3
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−4.0
0.247
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.153
0.146
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.060
47% / 44%
Success rate (off / def)
45% / 41%
1.33 / 1.33
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.22 / 1.27
701
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
470
15%
Returning production
65%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
UNLVOHIO
3-4 · 43%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-6 · 45%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), UNLV 28 games, OHIO 27. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0UNLVseriesOHIO1
Avg total points
27.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025UNLV 10 vs OHIO 17PlayoffsOHIO
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
