Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil StadiumStadium scoring factor 93 (105th of 134, 100 = league average) · 49.8 points a game in 25 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
IU offensevsOSU defense
IU offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · OSU defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.47
#4slight
−0.03
#7
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.17
#26
−0.17
slight#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#1slight
31%
#10
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
5.13
#1slight
2.64
#8
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 48 places
11.4%
#8Stronger
16.3%
#56
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 98 places
0.50
#3Stronger
1.00
#101
OSU offensevsIU defense
OSU offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · IU defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.48
#2Stronger
+0.09
#43
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 69 places
+0.07
#72
−0.16
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#3slight
30%
#8
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.83
#5
2.07
slight#1
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
11.2%
#7
23.2%
slight#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.79
#8slight
1.88
#13
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
IU offenseOSU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.47#4
−0.03#7▲
Pass success ratefavors IU
56%#2
38%#32
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors OSU
1.51#91
1.25#1
Yards / pass attempt
9.4#3
5.3#2
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
13.7%#12▼
5.1%#1
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors OSU
4.9%#63▲
8.6%#5
Completion %favors IU
72%#2
61%#55
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors OSU
4.7%#127▼
2.3%#72▼
OSU offenseIU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors OSU
+0.48#2▼
+0.09#43▲
Pass success ratefavors OSU
58%#1
39%#40
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors IU
1.42#116
1.54#58
Yards / pass attempt
9.2#7
6.2#21
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
11.1%#39
8.2%#25▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
3.8%#27▲
8.4%#6▼
Completion %favors OSU
77%#1
62%#70
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors OSU
2.0%#47▲
1.4%#123
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:IU scores 50% · allows 37%OSU scores 53% · allows 45%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
IUOSUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
IU13 games
Scored21.3
Allowed9.0
Pass share31%
26–36% · 391 plays
OSU15 games
Scored16.3
Allowed6.2
Pass share41%
36–45% · 462 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
IU3 games
Scored16.0
Allowed5.0
Pass share39%
34–45% · 109 plays
OSU1 game · small sample
Scored21.0
Allowed0.0
Pass share36%
25 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
IU1 game · small sample
Scored7.0
Allowed0.0
Pass share36%
22 plays · too few games for a range
OSU1 game · small sample
Scored14.0
Allowed10.0
Pass share53%
30 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 5 in 2026, 12 in 2025
IUat the half: led 13 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 1 (of 17)
7.8
1.9Q1
12.0
2.5Q2
19.8scored4.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
10.4
3.4Q3
9.1
4.4Q4
OSUat the half: led 15 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 1 (of 17)
8.2
1.6Q1
10.3
3.2Q2
18.5scored4.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
7.5
2.1Q3
8.9
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
IUOSU
16-0
Record
12-2
41.6
Points for / game
33.4
11.7
Points against / game
9.3
10-0 / 6-0
Home / road
7-2 / 5-0
W W W W W
Last 5
L L W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 14–16 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
IUOSU
+32.4
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+30.1
0.283
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.276
-0.075
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
-0.113
51% / 35%
Success rate (off / def)
52% / 34%
1.18 / 1.31
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.16 / 1.07
645
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
974
25%
Returning production
31%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
IUOSU
2-2 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
—
Last two seasons (2024–2025), IU 29 games, OSU 30. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1IUseriesOSU2
Avg total points
34.0
Meetings
3
They have met every season in our history.
2025IU 13 vs OSU 10IU
2024IU 15 at OSU 38OSU
2023OSU 23 at IU 3OSU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
