Field and weatherKickoff conditions and this stadium's scoring vs the league (100 = average; rank 1 = most). History, not a forecast.
Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield
LT end zone ← 100 yards → MOST end zone
46°F
Forecast at kickoff
Wind
15 mph
Breezy
Precip
—
chance
Roof
Open air
Mild outdoors games: 53.7 points on average · 2,723 games since 2023
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
LT offensevsMOST defense
LT offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · MOST defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.12
#91slight
+0.25
#97
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.12
#50Stronger
+0.11
#96
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#55Stronger
40%
#82
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.32
#108
3.89
slight#88
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
14.7%
#58slight
15.0%
#83
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.31
#74slight
1.15
#88
MOST offensevsLT defense
MOST offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LT defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.30
#34
+0.07
slight#30
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 56 places
+0.01
#97
+0.01
Stronger#41
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#101
39%
Stronger#64
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.69
#67
3.07
Stronger#23
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 125 places
23.9%
#135
19.5%
Stronger#10
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 76 places
1.38
#85
1.92
Stronger#9
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LT offenseMOST defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.12#91▼
+0.25#97▲
Pass success rate
37%#113
43%#92
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.59#45
1.56#69
Yards / pass attempt
6.8#87
7.2#74
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
10.2%#67
9.6%#58▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MOST
6.9%#107▼
5.9%#57▲
Completion %favors LT
63%#62
64%#103
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MOST
7.0%#135▼
2.7%#53▼
MOST offenseLT defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.30#34
+0.07#30
Pass success ratefavors LT
42%#59
37%#24
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors MOST
1.78#8
1.58#84
Yards / pass attempt
8.4#20
6.4#30
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MOST
13.3%#14
11.4%#106
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
10.1%#131
3.8%#118▲
Completion %favors LT
64%#51
55%#9
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MOST
1.8%#40
2.1%#92
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LT scores 47% · allows 44%MOST scores 50% · allows 47%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LTMOSTsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
LT7 games
Scored19.3
Allowed11.4
Pass share27%
23–30% · 195 plays
MOST3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share34%
24–45% · 90 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
LT3 games
Scored15.0
Allowed17.0
Pass share42%
38–47% · 92 plays
MOST5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed13.6
Pass share47%
39–54% · 161 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
LT7 games
Scored12.3
Allowed12.4
Pass share41%
30–52% · 246 plays
MOST9 games
Scored11.9
Allowed17.4
Pass share56%
51–60% · 260 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LTat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 7 (of 17)
6.9
4.4Q1
6.8
5.5Q2
13.7scored9.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.3
5.4Q3
9.6
7.0Q4
MOSTat the half: led 3 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 9 (of 17)
6.0
5.2Q1
6.7
8.6Q2
12.7scored13.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.9
7.1Q3
6.2
8.6Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LTMOST
8-5
Record
7-6
27.3
Points for / game
25.6
20.8
Points against / game
28.8
6-1 / 2-4
Home / road
3-3 / 4-3
W W W L L
Last 5
L L L W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
LTMOST
−1.3
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−10.7
0.097
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.145
0.007
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.163
40% / 38%
Success rate (off / def)
39% / 43%
1.25 / 1.33
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.50 / 1.31
494
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
426
43%
Returning production
—
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LTMOST
3-7 · 30%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-6 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), LT 26 games, MOST 14. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1LTseriesMOST0
Avg total points
72.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025LT 42 at MOST 30LT
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
