Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playJMA Wireless DomeStadium scoring factor 101 (60th of 134, 100 = league average) · 54.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
UNC offensevsSYR defense
UNC offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · SYR defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#68Stronger
+0.36
#126
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#123
+0.06
Stronger#66
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#95
41%
slight#86
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.33
#107slight
4.15
#113
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.7%
#94slight
13.4%
#114
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 59 places
1.25
#69Stronger
0.75
#128
SYR offensevsUNC defense
SYR offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · UNC defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 63 places
−0.04
#128
+0.16
Stronger#65
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#122
+0.13
slight#98
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#107
42%
slight#103
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 61 places
2.98
#122
3.58
Stronger#61
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
18.8%
#126
14.8%
Stronger#90
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.92
#129
1.00
Stronger#100
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
UNC offenseSYR defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors UNC
+0.16#68
+0.36#126▲
Pass success rate
39%#97
46%#120
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors SYR
1.47#102
1.54#59
Yards / pass attempt
6.2#122
7.8#112
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors SYR
6.4%#130
10.3%#80▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors UNC
5.1%#66▲
4.0%#114▲
Completion %favors UNC
64%#48
66%#121
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#31▼
3.8%#12▼
SYR offenseUNC defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors UNC
−0.04#128▼
+0.16#65
Pass success ratefavors UNC
35%#124
40%#50
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors UNC
1.58#51
1.43#17
Yards / pass attemptfavors UNC
6.4#112▼
6.6#41
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors UNC
9.7%#78▼
7.8%#19
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors UNC
7.1%#112▲
6.6%#31
Completion %
56%#121
64%#96
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
1.2%#14▲
1.6%#114▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 1 in 2024
Points in the 1st half:UNC scores 52% · allows 60%SYR scores 55% · allows 51%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 1 in 2024
UNCSYRsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
UNC4 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.0
Pass share36%
31–42% · 110 plays
SYR7 games
Scored14.4
Allowed15.3
Pass share47%
40–55% · 245 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
UNC3 games
Scored8.7
Allowed6.3
Pass share41%
32–50% · 95 plays
SYR1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed28.0
Pass share39%
36 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
UNC10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed11.4
Pass share58%
49–67% · 279 plays
SYR9 games
Scored9.7
Allowed14.4
Pass share53%
45–61% · 315 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 1 in 2024
UNCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 10 (of 17)
5.6
7.9Q1
4.8
6.1Q2
10.4scored14.0allowedleague 14.6
1st half
4.6
3.9Q3
4.8
5.1Q4
SYRat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 9 (of 17)
4.8
7.4Q1
9.3
9.1Q2
14.1scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.2
7.5Q3
7.3
7.7Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
UNCSYR
4-8
Record
3-9
19.3
Points for / game
20.2
24.5
Points against / game
34.9
2-4 / 2-4
Home / road
2-4 / 1-5
L L L W W
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
UNCSYR
−6.6
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−13.1
0.029
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
-0.056
0.150
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.213
38% / 41%
Success rate (off / def)
38% / 45%
1.14 / 1.25
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.19 / 1.32
753
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
728
16%
Returning production
13%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
UNCSYR
3-10 · 23%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), UNC 25 games, SYR 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2UNCseriesSYR0
Avg total points
42.0
Meetings
2
They meet only some seasons (2 of the 4 in our history). UNC have won the last 2.
2025UNC 27 at SYR 10UNC
2023SYR 7 at UNC 40UNC
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
