Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playJMA Wireless DomeStadium scoring factor 101 (60th of 134, 100 = league average) · 54.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
PITT offensevsSYR defense
PITT offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · SYR defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.24
#46Stronger
+0.36
#126
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.02
#111
+0.06
Stronger#66
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
33%
#120
41%
Stronger#86
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.65
#73Stronger
4.15
#113
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
18.4%
#119
13.4%
slight#114
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.77
#124slight
0.75
#128
SYR offensevsPITT defense
SYR offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · PITT defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 111 places
−0.04
#128
+0.03
Stronger#17
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 116 places
−0.04
#122
−0.11
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#107
33%
Stronger#15
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
2.98
#122
3.81
Stronger#83
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 112 places
18.8%
#126
18.9%
Stronger#14
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.92
#129
1.62
Stronger#34
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
PITT offenseSYR defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors PITT
+0.24#46▼
+0.36#126▲
Pass success ratefavors PITT
41%#74
46%#120
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors PITT
1.66#29
1.54#59
Yards / pass attemptfavors PITT
7.7#48▼
7.8#112
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors PITT
11.2%#37
10.3%#80▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.3%#116▲
4.0%#114▲
Completion %favors PITT
62%#67
66%#121
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
3.2%#92▼
3.8%#12▼
SYR offensePITT defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors PITT
−0.04#128▼
+0.03#17▲
Pass success ratefavors PITT
35%#124
37%#23
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors SYR
1.58#51
1.65#109
Yards / pass attemptfavors PITT
6.4#112▼
7.1#68
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors SYR
9.7%#78▼
11.5%#107
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors PITT
7.1%#112▲
6.0%#53
Completion %favors PITT
56%#121
63%#81
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.2%#14▲
3.5%#27▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
Points in the 1st half:PITT scores 58% · allows 52%SYR scores 55% · allows 51%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
PITTSYRsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
PITT12 games
Scored14.4
Allowed8.4
Pass share47%
41–53% · 381 plays
SYR7 games
Scored14.4
Allowed15.3
Pass share47%
40–55% · 245 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
PITT1 game · small sample
Scored14.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share48%
31 plays · too few games for a range
SYR1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed28.0
Pass share39%
36 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
PITT4 games
Scored13.3
Allowed17.8
Pass share53%
43–63% · 111 plays
SYR9 games
Scored9.7
Allowed14.4
Pass share53%
45–61% · 315 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
PITTat the half: led 12 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 4 (of 17)
8.1
3.6Q1
11.2
8.1Q2
19.4scored11.7allowedleague 14.6
1st half
7.8
3.4Q3
6.3
6.9Q4
SYRat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 9 (of 17)
4.8
7.4Q1
9.3
9.1Q2
14.1scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.2
7.5Q3
7.3
7.7Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PITTSYR
8-5
Record
3-9
33.7
Points for / game
20.2
24.8
Points against / game
34.9
4-3 / 4-2
Home / road
2-4 / 1-5
L L W L W
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12–13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
PITTSYR
+8.4
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−13.1
0.102
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
-0.056
-0.042
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.213
41% / 35%
Success rate (off / def)
38% / 45%
1.37 / 1.34
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.19 / 1.32
681
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
728
59%
Returning production
13%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PITTSYR
4-7 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), PITT 26 games, SYR 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3PITTseriesSYR1
Avg total points
44.5
Meetings
4
They have met every season in our history. PITT have won the last 3.
2026SYR 13 at PITT 27PITT
2025PITT 30 at SYR 13PITT
2024SYR 13 at PITT 41PITT
2023PITT 13 vs SYR 28SYR
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
