Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playJMA Wireless DomeStadium scoring factor 101 (60th of 134, 100 = league average) · 54.5 points a game in 21 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
DUKE offensevsSYR defense
DUKE offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · SYR defense in 1
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 100 places
+0.33
#26Stronger
+0.36
#126
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#76
+0.06
slight#66
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#78slight
41%
#86
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
4.32
#26Stronger
4.15
#113
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
15.4%
#67Stronger
13.4%
#114
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 99 places
1.00
#29Stronger
0.75
#128
SYR offensevsDUKE defense
SYR offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · DUKE defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#128
+0.33
slight#119
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#122
+0.04
Stronger#55
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#107slight
45%
#124
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
2.98
#122slight
4.39
#128
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
18.8%
#126
17.2%
Stronger#36
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 106 places
1.92
#129
1.71
Stronger#23
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DUKE offenseSYR defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors DUKE
+0.33#26▼
+0.36#126▲
Pass success ratefavors DUKE
47%#20
46%#120
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.59#44
1.54#59
Yards / pass attemptfavors DUKE
7.9#39
7.8#112
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors DUKE
11.1%#40▼
10.3%#80▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DUKE
4.2%#37
4.0%#114▲
Completion %favors DUKE
66%#25
66%#121
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
2.8%#75▼
3.8%#12▼
SYR offenseDUKE defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
−0.04#128▼
+0.33#119▼
Pass success rate
35%#124
46%#119
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors SYR
1.58#51
1.65#106
Yards / pass attempt
6.4#112▼
8.4#124
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors SYR
9.7%#78▼
12.8%#121
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.1%#112▲
4.9%#95▼
Completion %
56%#121
67%#126
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
1.2%#14▲
1.3%#129▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
Points in the 1st half:DUKE scores 54% · allows 57%SYR scores 55% · allows 51%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
DUKESYRsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
DUKE9 games
Scored16.7
Allowed6.8
Pass share38%
32–45% · 316 plays
SYR7 games
Scored14.4
Allowed15.3
Pass share47%
40–55% · 245 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
DUKE5 games
Scored13.8
Allowed16.8
Pass share55%
46–64% · 151 plays
SYR1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed28.0
Pass share39%
36 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
DUKE3 games
Scored17.3
Allowed14.7
Pass share63%
43–82% · 112 plays
SYR9 games
Scored9.7
Allowed14.4
Pass share53%
45–61% · 315 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
DUKEat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 3 (of 17)
7.4
6.9Q1
11.1
7.8Q2
18.4scored14.7allowedleague 14.6
1st half
7.1
5.1Q3
8.5
6.0Q4
SYRat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 9 (of 17)
4.8
7.4Q1
9.3
9.1Q2
14.1scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.2
7.5Q3
7.3
7.7Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DUKESYR
9-5
Record
3-9
34.6
Points for / game
20.2
29.4
Points against / game
34.9
4-3 / 5-2
Home / road
2-4 / 1-5
W W W W L
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12–14 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
DUKESYR
+6.6
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−13.1
0.204
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
-0.056
0.153
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.213
46% / 44%
Success rate (off / def)
38% / 45%
1.33 / 1.33
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.19 / 1.32
669
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
728
18%
Returning production
13%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DUKESYR
6-6 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), DUKE 27 games, SYR 25. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1DUKEseriesSYR0
Avg total points
41.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025DUKE 38 at SYR 3DUKE
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
