Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz StadiumStadium scoring factor 107 (27th of 134, 100 = league average) · 57.6 points a game in 25 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
SYR offensevsTENN defense
SYR offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · TENN defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#128
+0.14
Stronger#59
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#122
+0.07
Stronger#72
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#107
41%
slight#89
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
2.98
#122
4.09
slight#109
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 106 places
18.8%
#126
18.4%
Stronger#20
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.92
#129
1.54
Stronger#37
TENN offensevsSYR defense
TENN offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · SYR defense in 0
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 105 places
+0.35
#21Stronger
+0.36
#126
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.26
#7Stronger
+0.06
#66
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#10Stronger
41%
#86
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 104 places
4.69
#9Stronger
4.15
#113
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
12.4%
#18Stronger
13.4%
#114
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.15
#56Stronger
0.75
#128
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
SYR offenseTENN defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors TENN
−0.04#128▼
+0.14#59▲
Pass success ratefavors TENN
35%#124
41%#67
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.58#51
1.53#53
Yards / pass attemptfavors TENN
6.4#112▼
7.2#70
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
9.7%#78▼
10.4%#84▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors TENN
7.1%#112▲
6.0%#54
Completion %
56%#121
66%#118
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
1.2%#14▲
2.3%#79▼
TENN offenseSYR defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors TENN
+0.35#21▼
+0.36#126▲
Pass success ratefavors TENN
50%#9
46%#120
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.57#56
1.54#59
Yards / pass attemptfavors TENN
8.7#13▼
7.8#112
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors TENN
10.6%#52▼
10.3%#80▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors TENN
4.0%#33▲
4.0%#114▲
Completion %favors TENN
67%#19
66%#121
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SYR
2.3%#64▼
3.8%#12▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
Points in the 1st half:SYR scores 55% · allows 51%TENN scores 54% · allows 44%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
SYRTENNsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
SYR7 games
Scored14.4
Allowed15.3
Pass share47%
40–55% · 245 plays
TENN9 games
Scored18.9
Allowed12.6
Pass share38%
33–43% · 275 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
SYR1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed28.0
Pass share39%
36 plays · too few games for a range
TENN4 games
Scored16.3
Allowed18.8
Pass share49%
35–64% · 132 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
SYR9 games
Scored9.7
Allowed14.4
Pass share53%
45–61% · 315 plays
TENN4 games
Scored16.3
Allowed12.0
Pass share51%
35–67% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12 in 2025, 0–1 in 2024
SYRat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 1 · trailed 9 (of 17)
4.8
7.4Q1
9.3
9.1Q2
14.1scored16.5allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.2
7.5Q3
7.3
7.7Q4
TENNat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
11.1
4.6Q1
9.9
6.5Q2
20.9scored11.1allowedleague 14.6
1st half
9.8
5.3Q3
7.3
8.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SYRTENN
3-9
Record
8-5
20.2
Points for / game
39.8
34.9
Points against / game
28.8
2-4 / 1-5
Home / road
5-3 / 3-2
L L L L L
Last 5
L L W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 12–13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
SYRTENN
−13.1
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+15.0
-0.056
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.299
0.213
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.100
38% / 45%
Success rate (off / def)
51% / 44%
1.19 / 1.32
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.27 / 1.16
728
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
867
13%
Returning production
22%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SYRTENN
6-10 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-4 · 20%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), SYR 25 games, TENN 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0SYRseriesTENN1
Avg total points
71.0
Meetings
1
They meet only some seasons (1 of the 4 in our history).
2025SYR 26 vs TENN 45TENN
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
